since 2018 so far, has been the performance of the automotive market is not optimistic, sales continued to decline in the performance of this market seems to have lost the imagination. The strength of the car companies strive to protect themselves, the edge is declining car prices, dealers in the terminal is in a state on the verge of collapse. But so-called “not only more bad most bad”, since starting the year 2020, sales in the automotive market once again a significant decline in January car sales is a record two “low”, market sales totaled 1.699 million, up by 2019 January fell 21.5 percentage. This is since 2005, the biggest year on year decline of total monthly sales. At the same time, the chain in December last year, the total market sales in January fell 20.8 percentage, also a record low.
but we need to know, rise and fall of the role of the automotive market not only affect car prices for automobile economy known Chinese general the same market have very serious implications. When the market lukewarm response, unable to help themselves when car prices, both already on the market is difficult to make a positive role in promoting the government finally shot.
January 29, Foshan City, Guangdong Province issued “to promote notice “a number of measures automobile market consumption upgrade (trial), were mentioned in the notice related to the purchase of a number of preferential policies (Six-emission vehicles only for domestic consumption). For example, every new car 2000-5000 dollars given financial subsidies, simplify purchase procedures, offers specialty financial services, and promote the construction of parking and other methods. Easy to see that this is designed to activate the notification, Foshan auto market, “the hands of the government” stimulate automobile consumption.
However, China’s auto market is so large, the policy is relaxed only Foshan to take care of a place is obviously not enough, so it is not so much a single local policies, as it will be the country’s Foshan car purchase policy to relax the pilot. But why choose unbundling Foshan, led by a city? Car purchaseRelax really popularize it nationwide? Will the new Crown epidemic has the opportunity to become the automotive market bottomed out?
As the outbreak of Foshan city car ends up a relaxation of the policy, I believe many people are in doubt, why Foshan is the first? After all, Foshan and adjacent is the capital of Guangdong Province – Guangzhou, near Barry has another super economies – Shenzhen. In fact, this problem is not complicated, as mentioned above, and to, the Foshan purchase support policy as a pilot policy, focusing on the pilot run, and Foshan, Guangdong is one of the three major vehicle production base, which in 2018 Guangdong province’s automobile manufacturing industry accounted for 11.7 percentage automobile firms added value, motor vehicles and parts manufacturing industrial output value of over 130 billion yuan.
According to the State Council Development Research Center shows that the automotive industry involved more than 100 related industries, the multiplier effect can stimulate economic growth 1:10. That is, each producing one unit of the auto industry, other sectors of the economy can drive overall increase of 10 per unit of output. And Foshan in Guangdong Province as the automobile industry market, to be the first car to relax the policy of the pilot cities, nature is understandable. Adjacent to Guangzhou and Foshan, has a very high reference value to further promote the policy run. But with the launch of the Foshan purchase incentives, it could represent the future of the automotive market policies will be unbundling or usher in a new round of national subsidy plan to purchase it?
First of all, we need to know policies to promote the market in which aspect. For non-purchase of the city, a major role in economic policy is still the subsidy, the Foshan is one of them, by the dividend payment of subsidies to stimulate the purchase activity is an important means to activate auto market. In fact, since 2018 the automotive market economy from the cold, began to shift to non-automotive consumer purchase of second and third tier cities, even amongTo include a large number of new energy vehicles.
In 2019, the non-purchase of new energy vehicles become the city’s largest consumer market, accounting for up to 65.3 percentage, nearly twice the sales of the purchase of the city. This means that even if the re-purchase of the city vigorously develop new energy vehicle market, but its performance is still not as good as the purchase of non-urban markets, and one of the key lies in the strict restriction policy limit line. So like this Foshan subsidized policies, a greater role is to stimulate the purchase of non-market development of the city, for the purchase of the city, had little effect.
but not the sheep market economy, on the lawn grass eaten sheep rush to put another piece of the grass, the automotive market needs is expanding into new markets, taking into account the healthy development of existing markets. According to 2019 statistics show that currently there are 61 cars in cities over one million, two million over 27 cities, including Beijing, Chengdu, Chongqing, Shanghai, Suzhou, Zhengzhou, Shenzhen, Xi’an and other eight cities over 300 million, Tianjin, Wuhan, Dongguan, three cities close to 300 million units, among them are brisk growth of second-tier cities, the rapid growth of car ownership, and even higher than the first-tier cities has holdings.
Guangzhou, for example, car ownership in 2019 was 2.803 million, only ranked first in the country 14; and bordering with Guangzhou, Dongguan, in 2019, car ownership has more than 3 million. From thousands of car ownership volume (units / thousand), the Dongguan and Foshan first six belong to the country (320) and No. 7 (317), followed by Shenzhen ranked No. 8 (311), but it Guangzhou China has been routed No. 23 (189). Obviously, although the first-tier cities of Guangzhou name, but thousands of car ownership has a tremendous amount of contrast with its position. The reason for this situation, which is also inseparable from Guangzhou more than seven years of restriction policy. In addition, thousands of car ownership in Beijing amount to 288 only ranked No. 12 nationwide, Shanghai even worse, and only 156 thousand pro-car volume, ranking the country second only5.
On the spending power, these ultra-tier cities have chasing the capital, but the policy limit, spending power based on the extreme compression, the market reaction is not unexpected things continue to go backwards. But the market can not be sustained depression, a need to relax restrictions to meet the market demand, so from the beginning of last year, the government has made the appropriate operations to Guangzhou, for example, from June 2019 to December 2020, an increase of 100 000 index, increased the amount of principle 1: 1 ratio bid indicators are arranged ordinary cars and vehicles Yaohao energy index, the index management means organized by month embodiment. Thus, since last year the government had “rescue” of intent. With the negative impact of the outbreak on the market, the purchase of city car demand will rise again, domestic purchase of city limits is expected to further relaxation of licensing policy, in order to stimulate the market to pick up the car at the same time, to meet greater market demand. However, this does not mean the market can rebound back to the heyday of the past.
at all the factors pushing, 2020, China’s auto market is expected to be rebound effect, but this effect can make the Chinese market to recover past spectacular? This appears to be some difficulty, after all, for China’s auto plan, the current market demand and the market is still there to guide the direction of contrast, fuel car is still the biggest domestic sales of automotive products, but the policy is still leading the market to develop new energy vehicle market, so even if the policy is relaxed, not let fuel vehicle market to return to its former spectacular; but at the same time, even in 2020, the new energy vehicle sales market forecast of only two million, for a market stimulus, apparently drop in the bucket.
Therefore, in 2020, the Chinese auto market goals or more is by relaxing the restriction policy allows the purchase of city recovery to its rightful ownership level, rather than the violent growth. Instead, the powers of non-automotive consumer purchase of the city’s weight will increase further, in order to stimulate the overall market environment to pick up, to reach the appropriate regulation and urban markets reboundThe goal.
(FIG Articles with source network intrusion deleted)