2020 is bound to be a memorable year, the new coronavirus is raging for the domestic environment in a recession, fear of the economic situation and the long life of the complex could not let this has been pressing the fast forward button country slowed down the pace. After every disaster, there is not only surviving Fortunately, there are determined to face the ruins, when SARS so now also be the case.
and SARS that year different from 2003, when China’s economy is soaring, although the same volume at the time of the epidemic seats Chinese land, but after the outbreak still positive market environment for domestic economic recovery soon, especially in the automotive market, even if there is still quite good in the market performance impact of SARS, in 2003 car market in the first quarter car sales rose as high as 103 percentage, also has the second-quarter sales rose 66 percent performance.
But back to the present, China’s auto market is experiencing winter period, since 2018, domestic auto sales market remained low, narrow passenger cars in China in 2018 total sales fell 3 percentage year on year, 2019 annual passenger car sales in China narrowly 20.7 million, down 7.4 percentage, compared to 2018 For years, China’s auto market decline in 2019 can be described as worse. But winter is not yet over, but the first step in the new coronavirus arrival, based on a serious epidemic, local governments have chosen to extend Spring Festival holiday, to avoid further expansion of the epidemic, this also means that domestic major companies re-schedule delays, the economic benefits will be further affected. That in this environment, automotive market will be what kind of impact?
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in the delayed return to work environment for the automotive market is the most intuitive than the major impactCapacity issues car prices. According to market research firm IHS Markit predicted, Shanghai, Guangdong and Wuhan in the production of this outbreak reduced by at least 150,000 vehicles, although the final result in economic loss is still a lack of specific estimate, but the whole affair has brought to the automotive industry losses will far exceed the 2003 SARS (SARS) epidemic.
a large number of cars shutdown will lead to market brief short supply, especially public transportation problems faced by the outbreak, affect the market demand for cars from the side. Outbreak may cause a brief car boom occurs, especially for people just need to type in terms of the car, we will clearly understand the importance of private car travel. This can pry from the license plate auction price of around twelve in.
Guangzhou, for example, although due to the problems caused epidemic 1 a month Guangdong licensing auction and Yao Hao postponed to February 3 was held, but the auction results, the Guangdong a license auction prices have increased significantly, the lowest closing price of 14,800 yuan, compared to December 2019 a brand Guangdong the lowest bid price higher than $ 1,000. But in January the number of Guangdong A license auction transactions have decreased significantly, it also means that people just need to purchase intent more obvious among them are the side effects of the epidemic.
In addition, due to the shutdown will result in the the contradiction between supply and demand appear certain level. From the time the node, the novel coronavirus outbreak in spring, 2019 and 2020, officially ending the handover of the time, based on past automotive marketing law, this time the official dealer inventory accumulation period, December 2019 car production in the years formally delivered the hands of the various distributors.
However, with the delay duration and environmental impact, which means the hands of the dealer inventory is only the latest in December last year, the production car, but also the lack of follow-up supply of new cars to form short supply problem. For the consumer, supply and demand tension is likely to cause car price decline, or even increase, the purchase but from the point of view, increase last December to buy the production, inventory models for more than 3 months, it can be described as not quite cost-effective, and therefore form a contradictory relationship between buyers and sellers, may still suffer last rigid consumer demand and market conditions deteriorate, some car prices.
from the policy level, the major car prices new car will also be released because of the outbreak and postponed, at least in the first half of this year, we can see only a handful of new cars; most of the new release will be piled into the second half, and even some non-heavy vehicle will face a stranded situation. But for car prices, a more severe test because the epidemic is also being shortened marketing plan, we need to know from the release of a new car to go through the exposure to market, distribute, test drive, listing four stages, which need inclusion a variety of activities offline, online promotion and marketing strategies. In general, a new car from a publisher to market, requires short as one month or as long as six months, while car prices in 2020 to only six months left, plus the Beijing auto show time point is not clear, you can leave the car enterprises time and the timing of publicity already quite compact.
But for consumers, this situation may the car will once again reduce our costs, after all, car prices have lost half a year, as sales of harness, automotive products prices may usher in a further dropping, so in the second half of this year, perhaps a good time to start car .
The epidemic will also produce a huge impact on the formation of supplier , and the severity of this impact will spread evenGlobal Market. Based on the delayed impact of the resumption of work, domestic auto parts suppliers appear insufficient supply of commodities, there Toyoda Gosei, Denso Aisin Seiki and other companies around the cut-off of long-term, to discuss whether alternative production base outside of China.
Hyundai Motor spokesman even said that they plan 2 before May 9 Palisade moratorium on the production of SUV models in South Korea, in response to an outbreak caused by supply chain disruptions. South Korea’s Ssangyong Motor will also be February 4 to February 12 in South Korea closed Pu Nagasawa (Pyeongtaek) plant, because Chinese factories stop interrupting the supply of equipment parts.
In addition, the impact of the epidemic by car parts suppliers as well as Bosch, An Bofu other brands. China can be said to be one of the world’s largest auto parts producer, leading to the outbreak of auto parts production cuts affect not only at home, but around the world. India, for example, the Indian component industry of $ 57 billion in 2019 sales, which China imported $ 4.0 billion worth of parts. Bosch in Asia Pacific 2019 annual sales of 22.5 billion euros, of which 100 billion euros from the Chinese market.
It is clear that this epidemic problem also highlights China as the largest producer status, downtime parts industry has a profound impact on the global automotive industry in the world. And as the hardest hit by the outbreak Wuhan, to have local Webasto, Valeo, Cummins, Johnson Controls, TRW, Mahler and other more than 650 auto parts makers base, of which more than there have been many big-name auto parts parts production base located in the main business in Wuhan. How the service supply chain will be after the epidemic, China and the global market need to focus on thinking subject.
2019 original is a friendly automotive industry is not the year, especially for dealers, the 2019 is the step was hard . But in 2019 the decline has not been in the past, in 2020 the novel coronavirus epidemic and bring them further into the abyss. Epidemic raging not only allow dealers to postpone the construction period, but also means that they come to naught in these months of revenue. Although the car companies who have canceled the sales target in February, but dealers also need to face the huge operating costs, rental of premises, labor expenses are the same as the real deal of money every expenditure.
Of course, there are car prices to reduce auto pressure make the appropriate strategies, such as the Volvo would assume the wage bill by 50 percentage dealer employees. But for the same stretched car prices, car prices can be separated and how much more money in such environments to support dealers do? Xiao Bian believe it is only a handful. So in 2020, the dealers will face even greater difficulties, the tragedy of a large group is also likely to recur, it is also forcing existing marketing thinking make the transition, how to find a way out will be the new sales and dealer car prices Key topics.
(FIG Articles with source network intrusion deleted)