“necessary explanation:
at the beginning of the epidemic on the automobile market has had a huge impact on the middle and lower reaches every aspect of the car have been affected from the car companies, to the dealer and then to consumers, production rhythm during the epidemic car prices, dealer sales strategy and consumer psychology have had a change of car, what kind of impact the epidemic has on them? after the outbreak, how the automobile market trend? this ash times to carry out the “impact of the epidemic on the automobile market,” the series revolves around a series of special reports topic
Note: this topic will be the impact by the epidemic on car prices, car prices the fight against SARS action, terminal market survey, dealer services research, consumer purchase voices, new energy markets affected by the epidemic, the automobile market anticipation and other sections were carried out after the epidemic. today, we take a look at this new crown epidemic and what impact on the major car firms? [123 ]
major car firms appear under the downtime pneumonia epidemic situation, during which many areas, including parts supply, distribution channels, inventory and other automobile hampered. Beijing auto show because Phytophthora Influence the situation were delayed, then the major car firms launch new marketing programs in the first quarter of this year, have been disrupted the rhythm of the epidemic 1 although years later – in February is not the auto industry sales season, but car prices future sales climbing is also very crucial months under here we come to the onlookers, January – February car sales in the domestic market performance
most. 4S shop dealer delayed return to work, consumers are also to minimize the number of times out, suspended in many areas during the new license together with the epidemic, we can imagine this year – in February sales in the automobile market is not optimistic
according to by the Federation sales report shows that 2020 sales will be opened in all the way down to the automobile market, in February comprehensive domestic passenger car sales in the domestic narrow only 252,308, down 78.7 percentage up, down 85.4 percentage 1 – February narrow passenger total domestic sales volume was only 1.969 million, down 41 percentage year on year, which few data are the highest in nearly 20 years, the domestic passenger car market, the biggest drop!
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Let’s look at a single plantThe market’s performance, even top-ranked FAW – Volkswagen in February this year only sold 30185 units, 12704 units Nissan places the results ranked No. 6, while January also ranked 7-8 guangqi Honda and Dongfeng Honda in February, has been ranked in the 10 away. It is worth mentioning that, even if the last two years the automobile market suffered winter, but when the season Volkswagen Lavida, Volkswagen Bora, Nissan Sylphy and other popular models of single-vehicle monthly sales could exceed the overall sales of the highest-ranked vendor in February, which shows the epidemic for the major car firms caused huge economic losses.
China is now the world’s largest auto market, car production in 2019 was 25.7 million. The hardest hit by the epidemic as Hubei, is one of the four automobile production base. It is understood that Hubei automobile production in 2019 reached 2.24 million units, accounting for 8.8 percentage nationwide. While Wuhan is one of China’s four major passenger car base, General Motors, Nissan, Renault, Honda and PSA (Peugeot included) all have large factories in Wuhan.
that the epidemic caused many manufacturers were forced to stop or postpone the return to work until February 9th Shanghai GM, FAW – Volkswagen, Nissan, Tesla, Xiaopeng cars and other car firms began to return to work first gradual resumption of production. However, early return to work and they do not fully resume production, medical observation at home most of the staff needs to be done in line to return to post job after returning post conditions, and these include a large part of the production line workers, so many manufacturers of production capacity was not restored to normal levels.
by the Federation Secretary-General Choi Dong-tree that the core features of automobile production is a long industrial chain, supply chain convergence is extremely important. On the current situation, Hubei auto parts system “shut down” on February auto production caused serious adverse effects, especially for automobile production in Hubei Province. After the outbreak of Dongfeng Group, represented by automobile manufacturers have been most severely affected.
From the statistical data, Dongfeng Group, which owns the joint venture brands and independent brands combined total of 12, but the four DFG production base in Shiyan, Xiangfan and Wuhan production base have been discontinued, involving production capacity has reached several millionEconomic losses immeasurable. From the figure above, we can see include CR-V, Civic, including a variety of popular models of production were affected. Recently, we found that explore shops on the ground, in order to Civic, for example, 3 – may appear no car into the shop of the situation in April.
we can see by the table, Dongfeng Honda three vehicle factories are located in Wuhan, planned production capacity can reach 600,000 / year, after an outbreak has been in production downtime state, one and a half times the expected loss of nearly 10 million units of production capacity.
The good news is, after Hubei novel coronavirus infection pneumonia epidemic prevention and control headquarters announced: all kinds of enterprises in the province to press no earlier return to work before 24 pm March 10. Hubei provincial government currently does not further delay the resumption of work on notice, while Dongfeng Honda’s return to work application has received approval, it is expected to soon be able to resume production. With the epidemic prevention and control situation continues to improve, more and more is expected of Hubei auto industry will gradually return to work.
According to China Association of Automobile Manufacturers of research, as of February 18, China’s automobile industry to return to work rate of more than 75 percentage. Return to work does not mean that full recovery of production capacity, the rate of duty because of lack of front-line staff, all aspects of the upstream spare parts supply and logistics problems, has resumed car prices are currently single-class production, recovery or even three shifts to two shifts still a process.
which played automotive logistics chain in the automotive industry as a bridge, even if the plant is gradually return to work, but if the car can not be restored to the normal state of logistics, then it may lead to inadequate inventory around the dealers, consumers mention car prolonged and many other issues.
Currently there are in auto industrial chain of raw materials suppliers, one / two parts suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and other aspects, indeed affect the whole body . In addition to vehicle manufacturers, as of December 2019 industrial and commercial registration in the register of Hubei Province integrated parts and accessories production enterprises to 6025, many of them large number of international first-tier parts suppliers. Fuji Ya, Delphi, Borg Warner, Visteon, Lear, Steinway, Kai Wani will, VAST, Japan’s Yazaki Corporation, Showa and so on in Hubei have invested in parts production base.
on the table, these transnational suppliers of products not only supply the domestic vehicle manufacturers, and even some enterprises will export parts to Japan, Europe and other international markets. It is, therefore, even if present, except Hubei provinces other than the basic return to work has been achieved, but there are still other provinces due to the shortage of spare parts and car manufacturers publish shutdown warning, such as BMW would be affected by a lot of customer orders have been delayed, Overseas Nissan Kyushu factory, also temporarily discontinued.
Bosch CEO Volkmar Denner said: “We need to wait for developments if this situation continues, Bosch’s global supply chain will be interrupted..” Note: Bosch has two steering systems production in Wuhan and thermal technology plants, the number of employees about 800 people.
Valeo, the world’s largest R & D center in Wuhan, and has three factories in Wuhan and employs over 1900. Therefore outbreak was the reason, factory production stopped. Accounting for the global market of 50 percentage Webasto sunroof, also forced in a suspended state. Its production base in Wuhan skylights annual capacity of 200 million units, supply Shanghai GM, Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen, Daimler – foreign car manufacturers Chrysler, Geely and so on.
It is understood that the top ten global supplier of about 40 percent of production plants and research and development centers in the hardest hit by the epidemic. Manufacturers are less likely short-term replacement supplier, so the focus epidemic area parts suppliers delay in production, but also so that some OEMs are forced to postpone the resumption of work or stop production.
in the major car firms resume production resumption postponed, in the case of the auto parts supply chain disruption, manufacturers and distributors whether there is sufficient stock of vehicles to meet consumer demand at this time?
Stock coefficient is a measure of the depth of an important indicator of car dealer inventory when inventory coefficient between 0.8 to 1.2, expressed in reasonable inventory; if the stock factor gt; 1.5, reflecting the stock reached alarming levels, attention needs to be adjusted; if the inventory factor gt; 2.5, it means that inventory is too high, operating pressures and risks are very large.
In February of this year, car dealers integrated inventory coefficient of 14.8, up six-fold year on year, the chain increased by up to 8 times, inventory levels far above the warning line. As the production car pricesCan be affected, Feb. most dealers not normal business and consumer desire to buy is serious repression and other factors, the higher the short term the overall auto dealer inventory index.
But in late February, major distributors are starting to open, for some capacity remains severely affected the brand, is also a good time of year to digest inventory. Only when other brand models inventory digestion is completed and production is still not back to normal, consumers are likely to turn to buy a similar product strength, adequate car source.
we can see that some of the independent and joint-venture brand sales target in 2020 through the table. 2018-2019 years, the Chinese automobile market for two consecutive years of negative growth. By the Federation data show that 2019 full-year sales of 20.7 million passenger cars narrowly, down 7.4 percentage further increased in 2018 compared to 3 percent decline.
In addition, the National Bureau of Statistics released the 41 industrial sectors, 13 industry total profit decrease over the previous year. Among them, the automotive industry profits fell 15.9 percentage. Before by the Federation had expected car sales in 2020 will be positive growth of 1 percentage. However, the sudden outbreak of such a break is expected, in addition to the above-mentioned car prices the pace of production, parts suppliers stagnation, multi-faceted impact of dealer inventory, the 2020 Beijing Auto Show also forced to postpone because of the epidemic’s sake.
because of the epidemic prevention and control and 4S shop itself is not a high rate of return to work, to shop to look at the actual car consumers significantly reduced compared with before. Overall, on the one hand it is the supply-side capacity can be suppressed, and the other side is the side of the consumer demand can not release, the overall performance of the market is not optimistic.
the impact of new crown epidemic in the global market for now the situation is quite grim, as of March 16, the new global crown pneumonia cumulative confirmed cases have been more than 167,000 cases, of which a total of confirmed cases outside of China more than 88,000 cases. In this connection, the new crown epidemic will have a profound impact on the global automotive industry chain global supply chain. Currently, due to the impact of new crown pneumonia epidemic, originally scheduled for March 3 – March 15 organized by the Geneva Motor Show has been canceled.
Japan Automobile Dealers Association JADA data show that in February 2020, sales in the Japanese car market fell 10.3 percent to 430,185 year on year, far below the 2012–2019 years data over the same period. In mid-February, Nissan Kyushu plant’s two production lines were shut down one after another. Toyota said Lexus two factories in Japan from March 16 to start reducing production, is expected to continue to the end of March. This two factories than originally planned to reduce the production of more than 1,600 new vehicles, a decrease of about 6 percentage. In addition, Honda also announced production cuts in early March, local Honda factories in Japan continued to cut a week.
February Korean automobile production and sales both fell in double figures, production, exports and domestic sales decreased by 26.4 percentage, 25 percentage and 18.8 percentage. Hyundai Motor official data point of view, in February global sales of 275,044, a decrease of 13 percentage year on year. Among them, Hyundai Motor in South Korean domestic sales volume plummeted 26 percent to 39,290; overseas markets fell 10 percent to 236,000 last year.
Recently, Musk recently emergency recall of all US employees in Berlin, Germany plant. According to the plan, Tesla Berlin plant will produce batteries, powertrain and vehicle, and in 2021 began shipping Model Y, a move that will directly affect the progress of the construction of the Tesla factory in Germany. March 17, 2020 annual online media communication will be held in the Volkswagen Group, Chairman of the Management Board of the Volkswagen Group, Herbert middot; Diskin said: Volkswagen in Spain, Portugal, Slovakia and Italy has been gradually shut down the plant.
According to Xinhua News Agency, the Spanish Ministry of Health noon local time on the 15th released the latest data show that the epidemic, the new Spanish crown pneumonia confirmed cases of 7753 cases, 2000 cases of new single day. Ford Emergency shut down a factory in Spain, because of the plant’s three employees were diagnosed as positive. It is worth mentioning that this year the plant production capacity of about 400,000, mainly the production of the Mondeo and Escape hybrid version of the model. But with three staff diagnosed, Ford will suspend production of the plant.
Ferrari announced the closure of two factories before March 27. Lamborghini factory in Italy remain closed until March 25. Fiat – Chrysler announced the temporary closure of Italy Melfi, Bomi Adriano, Cassino, Mirafiori, Grugliasco and Meng Dena factory. Italian automotive industry association warned that the Italian car sales in 2020 could decline 15% or more.
first week of March, US auto sales fell by 10 percentage Seattle area car sales fell by 20 percentage. From March 13, the US Big Three auto group Ford, General Motors, FCA requirements have appeared in most of the non-manufacturing sector salaried employees of a temporary home office. March 15, Ford, General Motors and FCA announced the formation of task force combating the disease by their respective leaders to lobby together with the President of UAW composition. Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets predict that US auto sales this year will fall 20 percentage.
March 16, French President Make Long announced that France in the fight against the epidemic of “state of war”, the implementation of a 15-day “closed city” measures in France. PSA announced that due to the outbreak sharp decline in the automotive market demand, supply chain disruptions after the lack of a lot of parts, PSA decided to take the proper precautionary measures, car assembly plant in France will be closed, a number of production bases in Europe will be closed until March 27 , which includes Opel factories in Germany and Poland, as well as the British Vauxhall plant.
Gotta run, the new crown virus epidemic spread rapidly around the world, let’s just go through 2019, “cold winter” of the automotive industry suffered another hit. The automotive industry is a pull situation as a whole, the industry is closely associated with each section, and now the supply chain disruptions, the plant was forced to stop production, sales fell like dominoes and other issues are in the automotive sector staged a series of many countries, and we have reason to I believe this is a challenge for the major car companies, after all, the epidemic will pass, which will also stimulate new consumption patterns.