the last days of 2019, the car turns a brief silence after the Guangzhou Auto Show is the NIO DAY Wei to break, to the 2019 New Year paranoia on a fairly satisfactory conclusion.
Although not visit the scene, but after watching the live broadcast, I published a few thoughts in my circle of friends, expressing Wei to the progress of the past year and look forward to Wei joy to the future.
2020 has come, in this New Year, the future of the node, I would like to take the car to the topic of Wei to expand the way to share some of my recent thoughts and reflections.
■ make sense of a high-end car brand far more than most people imagine
In my circle of friends, said: “Wei to the brand’s success is great little sense: If you do not come Wei, China brand is simply not a matter sorted Tesla (or other luxury brands) direct competition, Wei to retain this point of hope. “
[123 ] China’s auto industry after half a century of time, did a few things – build your own automobile industry, to grasp the mainstream automobile manufacturing technology, to create their own national brands, to form the world’s largest auto market.
There is no doubt, very great.
but there are a few questions, the first is not the creation of a truly global brand, the second is not its own luxury brand, of course, it is no more a global brand of luxury. The only proud of is that China has the world’s largest car market, thanks to the demographic dividend brings us good luck.
or whether it is a global brand luxury brands, are related to the output of car culture. China’s auto industry in the whole stage before, only spare hard at learning the ropes, to ensure the pace to keep up with international companies do not fall behind too much, then rely on policies to protect local roots hold positions in the market it is the greatest success, what almost no output culture, not to mention globalization, can not have the luxury brand was born.
Chinese brand can not influence external output of the past, because of weak economic foundation, weak internal strength, stabbing outside security, becauseThis incompetent. In contrast Tesla from the United States, strong foundation, no worries, so in a very short period of time can be sweeping the globe.
However, at this stage, the situation is different.
First, Chinese companies are now on basic research and development of automobile manufacturing has matured and process-oriented, and simply say, as long as you have money you can build the car to ensure that (of course, not be able to create a good car );
Second, Chinese companies now have money, you can invest more in brand building.
This is the reason why can be Wei made the car a short time and can put a lot of real money on brand building in.
but it does not mean that smashed money, you can make high-end brands, Wei also come with the heart, the most important thing is to find the right method.
Geely established for 20 years, making high-end brands yet? No. So it spend money to buy Volvo, bought Ruths.
BYD was founded 22 years, has not made high-end brands. Dynasty Series? Not even close.
not to mention the old state-owned enterprises, FAW, SAIC, Dongfeng, Chang’an, have not been successful high-end brands.
red flag count? At least markets and consumers do not recognize. (But personally feel a certain potential)
Therefore, Wei to now have brand recognition, with only two years to put the price of more than 40 million vehicles to achieve annual sales of 20,000, really It is not easy. (Wei to expect Q3 earnings report, 2019 the total annual deliveries of more than 20 300 vehicles.)
up how many brands are throwing money at numerous brand but seek it and not of Wei in a short time They did, the premium brand can make up for its losses on the book.
Wei to brand strength reflected in two aspects.
The first is the consumer recognition, and this is reflected out of the sales. It may contrast with Lincoln, Lexus and other brands and see what they do when annual sales in the Chinese market 20 000;
The second is investment in people recognized, and this is reflected out of the stock. December 28 NIO DAY day, Wei to the share price was $ 2.42, December 30 close, the stock soared Wei to 53.72 percentage, to close at $ 3.72.
2019 so successful, some people actually think Bin 2019 is the most miserable person?
on creating high-end / luxury brand, Wei to do, the next step is to output the external influence, to become a global brand, this step may be a long stage, everyone needs to be patient.
Again sense to make a high-end brand.
China’s auto industry has been hoping for years to “turn overtaking”, the new energy is a good opportunity, but foreign brands are violent to catch up, technical barriers will soon be eliminated. If there is no breakthrough on the brand, the brand new energy vehicles soon will return to the pattern of similar status era fuel vehicles, years of hard work in vain.
do not believe you see a Porsche, Taycan sell more than one million yuan, expensive? Order minutes after the release of over 30,000, which is the brand of charm.
Therefore, Wei to retain a hope of overtaking around the curve, meaning very important.
In any case, such a brand, must be good care, rather than relentless pressure.
■ OEMs repairer “technical barriers do not exist.”
This is my personal point of view, but also with the idea after explore the industry (manufacturing R & D) in.
OEMs dry live, integration and focus matching. Tens of thousands of car parts, OEMs can not master all the core technology, good Big Three – body, chassis, powertrain (engine or EIC system), four technology – stamping, welding , painting, assembly, supply chain management is good, a car can be off the assembly line. (Of course, in fact, much more complicated than that)
These are throwing money can do, and I’m not just lip service, practitioners also said. Throwing money can do things, there is no technical threshold. Otherwise, how can there are hundreds of Chinese steamCar OEMs?
repairer, the capital threshold more difficult to cross. Money is God, money is the most miserable person.
What technological barriers? For example, the chip; for example, the firing of rockets; for example, artificial intelligence …… top of these global companies to single digits do, have called technical threshold.
Of course, there is no technical barriers OEMs repairer, automobile manufacturing itself does not mean there is no technical barriers.
However, technical barriers automobile manufacturing, mostly in the hands of suppliers. For example, Bosch, Continental, ZF, Magna, Valeo …… these are the real “behind.” BBA many so-called core technology, in fact, are jointly developed, simply because the BBA strong brand, sales volume, they are able to stand in the leading position, while the majority of Chinese brands need to pay big bucks to work with these vendors, not what words right.
The more publicity when play “with the world’s top suppliers” banner, and listed a long string of brand brand list, the more there is no real core technology. You see BBA will introduce its own product, the crazy publicity who their suppliers are not you?
Because of the right to speak in the hands of suppliers, automotive technology in terms of “homogenization” will become increasingly serious. On the domestic market, Ningde era, Huawei, Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, IFLYTEK …… they can cooperate with all automotive brands, of course, it can also be ordered on the surface of the development, but the bones are about the same thing.
So, how to make a difference in the “homogeneity” basis, is the key to success.
■ Chinese brand in the road to success in the end where?
So then again, although repairer “There is no technical barriers”, but need not require technical innovation? It is clear that is needed.
Unfortunately, at present I think there is not a Chinese car brand is driven by technological innovation.
Even Wei to do a certain height on the brand, but at the technical level, in fact, there is not much innovation. 100 kWh large battery or, automatic driver assistance or, for power mode or, or not a technological breakthrough in the true sense, or just innovation in business models.
certain brands so-called core technology, is not unrivaled in the world, but myself unique skills, in fact we have, but the implementation method to achieve efficiency, cooperation suppliers was different.
technological innovation will be very difficult, there may be a breakthrough in several directions, including high-level automatic driver assistance, solid-state batteries, hydrogen fuel cells, etc., but you can imagine, these breakthroughs are unlikely to is an OEM single-handedly out out, once the breakthrough, all levels of industry-wide applications, so the homogenization techniques will still throughout.
For China, there is strong government support, be able to invest more in infrastructure, and therefore more suitable for a breakthrough in the “road car synergistic” aspect that other countries can not match advantage. Indeed, some companies have been efforts in this regard and look forward to the near future can be seen gratifying results.
I would think, in the short term, electric cars, intelligent path may be closer with mobile phones, smart phones already on the basic hardware homogeneity, but at the software level there is still much differentiated space. Different mobile phone brands have their own characteristics, mainly on the different software ecosystem.
From the point of view of the history of the development of smart phones, intelligent machines replace the function does not depend on the machine for longer battery life, do not rely on lower prices to win the high price of smart phone battery life is short can win, the key is subversive user experience.
cars in the standardization of hardware based on the one hand relying on the car networking, innovation and the pursuit of personalized software eco-smart cockpit; on the other hand, can continue to explore in the service mode, bringing more good user experience. In the visible future, the service will go beyond the product itself, become the core reason for the user to select the product.
rich and powerful companies, such as the public like this, better invested heavily in reconstruction models underlying architecture. MEB platform to embrace the pure electric, the new car will carry vw.OS vehicle to build a new operating system software ecosystem of the public, the public will also vowed declared production 1 million MEB platform of pure electric vehicle worldwide in 2025.
In a first GNEV10 Assembly of the electric network, the surplus production deep administered groupGold CEO Lin Wenhai said: “The smart electric cars have no future, to see what the world of giants do know.” The Chinese government tends to look at policy and countries around the world, the conclusion at a glance.
can not see the future does not matter, the trend is irreversible, is the follow-up.
■ China the process of advancing new energy vehicles is still dangerous
due to the impact of the subsidy back slope, 2019 although the new energy vehicle market as a whole relatively sluggish, but some bright spots.
In addition to selling ES6 Wei outside, new energy Aion S Guangzhou Automobile also achieved a hit, even nurturing Toyota Camry out of a iA5. Biyaditang also inverted output to the Mercedes-Benz, Proton launched a new potential X. China brand new work in the energy sector to get a good return.
but the crisis still exists.
2019, Buick, Ford, Hyundai, Honda, Renault, Lexus, Audi and other foreign brands of pure electric cars one after another in China market, domestic brands thriving situation began to suffer.
2019, BMW 530Le plug-in hybrid-type hot-selling in the Chinese market.
2019, SAIC Volkswagen factory MEB completed in 2020, will be put into the public I.D series of the first models.
in 2019, “Tesla speed” initial success, China opened the first factory owners delivery staff.
2019, Tesla global new energy vehicle sales for the first time beyond BYD, the world’s first.
2019, simmering, pack and play; in 2020, Chinese brand can continue to lead?
■ Car “new four modernizations” will eventually go from here?
2020 has come, in this day and age we live in, the car is rapidly experiencing the “new four modernizations” of the process, power, intelligence, network-linking and sharing trend has been unstoppable.
Although many agencies predicted that in 2020 China’s automobile industry including new energy vehicles will go through a trough, but I believe the trough is temporaryThe future is bright, and in 2020 the new energy automotive industry will never be the one of the most miserable.
to “The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy” world-famous British science fiction writer Douglas middot; Adams has a famous “Three Laws of science and technology”: [123 .]
1 at any time I was born have some sloppy science and technology are part of the normal order of the world has always been;.
between any 2 I was 15 to 35 years of the birth of science and technology, are the revolutionary product will change the world;.
any 3 after the age of 35 I was born technology is unnatural to be sacrilegious.
cars “new four modernizations” seems now is a kind of science and technology branch in a strange stage, there was not only a lot of controversy and doubt, there are a lot of people firmly optimistic about its future.
So, I ask you the wise, do you think the new energy vehicles are now experiencing technological change would be more than what kind of situation?