Introduction | The best era, the worst era
2020 Gengni happened, enough to change the direction of China’s new energy industry.
The turning point has quietly happened. Some companies are still immersed in self-exiting satellite. Some vested interests have blowing drums in front of the shares, and some consumers are excited and angry, one. KOL has measured ultra-NEDC for the rice. The water army is swaying: China’s brand has become a new energy leader.
In the chaos of the light monster, do you not realize the danger?
In 2020, China’s new energy passenger car sales increased by 15% year-on-year, far higher than the percentage of the passenger car – 6 percentage. However, the sales volume of new energy passenger cars is 1.25 million, accounting for only 6.2 percentages of the passenger car. The country’s industrial planning is that in 2025, new energy vehicles account for 20% of the total sales.
It is expected that the number of passenger sales will reach 24 million in 2025, then the target sales of new energy is 4.8 million. This means that the average growth rate of new energy is more than 30% in the next five years.
So, the growth of 15% of new energy passenger cars in 2020 is far less than enough. Who is it?
It is known that in 1250,000 new energy passenger cars, pure electric has accounted for 79%, let it pick up the girlfriend?
1. Electric Vehicle: It is difficult to end in the battery life and the safety
What is the most lively news in the car ring? The most popular two pure electric vehicles – Han Ev and Model 3 have encountered the winter life “Waterloo”, but the vortex of the public opinion.
The owner of a Han EV super long-lasting flight version of Shanxi, only 246 kilometers of daily average practical miles. After the junction report, it caused a wide range of discussions in the industry.
In order to obtain the truth of lithium iron phosphate winter, we have a Christmas in 2020, which specially measured the lower temperature performance of the two cars. At 6-2 degrees of long triangle high speed, Han EV’s effectively driving mileageIt is 313km, and the endless discount rate is 54 percent; Model 3 is 218km, the discount rate is 58%.
Under the Northern “daily driving” working conditions, it will be 40% off. That is, the EV runs 242km, and Model 3 runs 185km.
I was measured, many Chinese EV owners message: absolutely true!
A Beijing owner said that when the a few days ago, the Han EV had more than 200 kilometers of the Han EV to continue to be fade, basically 1: 4 power-down ratio, let him find the pile everywhere.
Another netizen in Qingyang, Gansu, said its Han EV performance version of the electricity suddenly fell from 30% to 0 percentage, directly anchor, and twice. He wants to be an angry.
Tesra Model 3 lithium iron phosphate, it is not.
A Model 3 car owners, Ms. Wang, who is not full of car, actually only runs 220km, take the treestroacity to Tesla store to defend rights, for a while Causes the society’s extensive discussion and worry.
More terrible is that the MODEL 3 of the lithium iron phosphate battery has a large amount of chargeless problems.
Car Jun Jun reported that a monk, a car owner, his MODEL 3 is filled with only 352km, 70km from normal value. Moreover, his car stops in the room for one night, and the battery can be 40km!
The forum has been exposed, a large number of Model 3 Subsequent version of the car has the same problem. The worst car owner said that only 305km is fully charged. I haven’t run yet, I will be 65% off in place, who can get it? 
In 2020, domestic MODEL 3 sales was 138,000, and Han EV sales were 21,000. These 160,000 electric vehicles are used in lithium iron phosphate batteries, and I don’t know how many bitter stories in this winter.
China and foreign first-line electric vehicle enterprises, bilateral iron iron.
The root cause is that the low temperature performance of lithium iron phosphate cells, including battery life, chargeElectrical capacity, performance consistency, is significantly weaker than the three-dimensional lithium battery.
The ideal car CEO Li wants, disclosed on March 29, 2020, said: do not look at the blade battery of Han EV. The reason is: Iron phosphate voltage measurement is unstable, will disorder the control strategy; the low temperature performance is poor, when the lithium iron phosphate is higher than the three-yuan lithium 50%, NVH is different to crash; weight and The space is not dominant, which is a major drawback for the extension and insert.
The second day, Li Yunfei, deputy general manager of BYD Sales Company, also publicly reply:
Blade battery low temperature performance has been strictly tested, many brands are talking to them; voltage problems, involving BMS Voltage sampling and management, BYD has experience; DM technology will launch a new DM-I platform, loss of electricity is not over 5 liters.
10 months passed, the fact seems to have confirmed the question of Li Xi.
I don’t know how many brands of Li said, and I can finally talk into a few. Anyway, after the winter of the Gengzi Year, lithium iron phosphate may be as Li Xi, more suitable for medium and low-end cars or operators.
If the road of lithium iron phosphate is not passing, the three yuan lithium is 1000km road?
This is the fire to burn on Nio Day on January 9. It announced that the 150KWH solid state will start loading in the fourth quarter of 2022, and the battery life of ET7 can reach NEDC 1000km.
The main highlight is solid-liquid electrolyte and in situ curing technique, and the negative electrode uses carbonilable composites and homogeneous wrap processes, and the nickel and nano-stage wrap technology are used in the normal electrode.
Finally, Guangzhou-based battery is fully installed on Aion V, which can achieve 80% of 80%; and its silicon negative battery year in Aion Lx, expect NEDC battery life 1000km.
Zhishao Automobile also said that its wheelbase 3150mm model can realize battery life.
So Ouyang Ming high words: battery innovation should balance energy density, fast charge, life, and safetyComplete, cost, etc. contradictory indicators. If one says it, it can run 1000km, and it can be charged a few minutes, it is also very safe, and the cost is still very low. If you don’t have to believe, it is impossible.
Then Guangzhou Automobile “rumors”, saying that fast charge and long-lived sailing are not the same kind of battery.
In fact, the above three car companies may not end this 1000km “small goal”.
Because the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology required: 2021 to complete the transition from NEDC to WLTC in 2021. Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology sounds again: electric vehicles low-temperature use of consumers are related to consumers, to introduce several measures: requires car companies to strengthen after-sales service, support enterprises to improve low-temperature driving performance, and speed up the application of new conditions.
This new condition should be the industry’s long-awaited WLTC standard.
WLTC standard is more stringent than NEDC, the length of test is increased from less than 20 minutes to 30 minutes, and the test distance is raised from 11.04km to 23.25km. The average speed increase from 34km to 46.5km, and the maximum speed is increased by 120km. To 131.3km, the actual road test is added, and the possibility of the NEDC standby test fake.
What is the result? The electric car after WLTC may only be 15% off NEDC!
Taking Tesla as an example, the Model 3 performance version of WLTC is 530km, the NEDC published by the listing published is 605km, the WLTC conversion rate is 87.6%; Model Y long The battery life WLTC is 505km, NEDC is 594km, the conversion rate is 85.0%; Model X long-lasting WLTC is 505km, NEDC is 605km, and the conversion rate is 83.5 percentage.
The heavier the car, the lower the conversion rate of WLTC, and the average is about 85%.
So, this year, the three claimed that NEDC’s battery life can reach 1000km, they even met the WLTC standards immediately, and only 850km.
It seems that pureThe electric vehicle is continuously turned over.
Then the next five years, it is very risky to achieve 30% of the year of 30% by pure electric. After all, let consumers, especially the consumers in the northern region, have a very unrealfacting electric vehicle for 10% off winter. In the policy makers who are in Beijing, they must also feel the same.
Another real paradox is: electric vehicles should be largely popular, the price will be reduced; the most direct means of price cut is the lithium iron phosphate, but Ttersla, BYD Not good lithium iron phosphate, how to make other electric vehicle companies do better?
If you insist on using ternary lithium electricity, sorry, in front of the fast demand and huge profits, battery companies inevitably “radish is nothing to wash”, resulting in frequent incidents.
According to the public data of the “New Energy Car Fire Record Team”, from May to December eight months, there is 64 new energy vehicles in May to December 20020.
There are many dramatic explosions, which is greatly harmful to the lives and property safety of consumers and surrounding people.
In particular, a Model 3 in a community in Minhang District, Shanghai suddenly fired in the underground area, and accompanied by violent explosion. Hunt.
This allows the pure electric car to fall into two difficulties: adhere to the three-dimensional lithium battery, there is a higher angle of fire; the lithium iron phosphate is changed, and the winter continued oranges.
Noise can not say that Ouyang Ming highly said: (battery technology), there is no special breakthrough in recent years.
What should I do? Developing new energy, but national policy.
Second, the increased range: Ideal gambling is the beginning
Or Ouyang Ming high, still in the same hundred people, he shouted such a PPT:
The academician analyzes the energy efficiency conversion rate of four energy, and it is concluded that in addition to fuel cell, oil and electricity mixed power is the highest, up to 34%, even More than 1 percentage point of pure electric car.
His argument quoted Toyota’s calculation method, that is, the efficiency of hydrogen separation membrane fuel cell W2T (oil well to the fuel tank) is 67%, the efficiency of T2W (fuel tank to wheels) is 59%, then the total efficiency of W2W (well to wheels) It is 40%, the first four energy vehicles. However, it is clear that the hydrogen fuel cell is most difficult to promote.
Pure electric car, although T2W is more efficient, up to 85%; but the lowest in the upstream W2T (natural gas combined circulation power generation) is only 39%, the comprehensive efficiency is 33%.
Oil-electricity mixing power, like a gasoline car on the upstream W2T, is 84%, but the downstream T2W is not low, up to 40% – half of pure electric, but fuel Twice. Comprehensive efficiency is 34%.
So his conclusion is that the hydraulic hybrid seems to be reasonable choice, why should I engage in pure electric and fuel cells? 
Car Jun Jun basically agreed. However, the oil and electricity here also dividends. In view of the calculation method from Toyota, it is estimated that this “oil-electric mix” refers to the non-plug-of-in-PHEV.
In order to clarify the context of the entire new energy, we do the following:
In the above table, the more the right is more environmentally friendly. But the rightmost hydrogen fuel cell car, promotion and application is a big problem.
The data displayed by the China Automobile Association is that the sales of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is 1177, which fell 56.8% year-on-year. This is the worst of each segment, and it is small, down fast, basically determines the foreseeable future, and the hydrogen fuel cell cars will not have substantive breakthroughs. The reason is very simple: the energy makes a single single, can only go to the hydrogenation station. Moreover, the construction of a hydrogen station involves physical volume, safety, cost problem, and it is impossible to develop as fast as charging stations.
Pure electric problem, the first chapter has been discussed, facing two difficulties.
Then the “Digang” direction of new energy is only inserted and increasing. They all have entered the 2.0 era. That is, BYD will be able to see the DM-i in March this year as a 2.0 era of plugging, you can see the previous article: “Cold eye, BYD DM-I mixing system, one break into progressPorcelain shop bull? “
What is the extension?” Its 1.0 era must be ideal one. Look at it’s 2020 record:
First, from the new potential of the car, the ideal one is listed in the one. In 2020, this increase in SUV has delivered 33,000, more than 20% more than the second one.
This is why it has doubled its share price, with a total market value of 30 billion US dollars, once exceeded the market value of Fiat Krysler.
If you put it in the entire new energy market, Ideal One can also be rushed to the sixth place, located in Model 3, Hongguang Mini Ev, Aion S, Euca Black Cat, Chery EQ1. Its price is the highest in front, so it wins more than the amount.
If it is placed in a large SUV segment, Ideal One can also be ranked 6th. Second only to the Volkswagen, Lexus RX, BMW X5, Mercedes-Benz Gle, Toyota Prado, etc., is the latest TOP 10, the latest, the lowest is lowered.
If re-, ideal one is still in the top ten of the large SUV, the only new energy car and the only Chinese brand car. In other words, Ideal One is indeed like a black horse, which has become synonymous with China’s restriction model.
What is the reason behind the back? Macro policy is a big side.
In July 2014, the State Council issued new energy vehicle tax new politics, and the pure electricity of the license and the mixing (including increased range) hybrid, fuel cell exempt from purchase tax.
The new “Automotive Industry Investment Management Regulations” in January 2019, the automobile vehicle investment project is divided into fuel-fuel and pure electric vehicle according to the driving force system. , Including pure electric vehicles (including derogatory vehicles), fuel cell vehicles.
In October 2020, the State Council issued “New Energy Automotive Development Plan 2021-2035″It is proposed to use pure electric car, plug-in hybrid (including incremental), fuel cell vehicle as three vertical, layout of vehicle technology innovation chain.
Therefore, from the perspective of calendar year, the incremental process has been in a dependent status. In the investment classification, it belongs to a pure electric car; in the tax, industrial plan, it belongs to the plug-in mixing vehicle. Ideal for your own position, also updated from the original pure electric car, updated to plug in a mixture.
No matter how categorized, the state began to pay attention to and encourage the extension. 
The reason is very simple: let it gradually replace the increasingly fallen plug-in mixing vehicle. Because of a large-hot plug, the consumer has become a unclatible fuel car. Taking Shanghai as an example, the street net us is all in BYD Qin DM. The driver is more than the foreign people, and does not have charging conditions. In addition, the daily grab is safe to charge, resulting in a mixture of plug-in mixing. This wastely, the country’s new energy subsidies, and occupied local precious green resources, departing from the original intention of developing new energy.
The country wants to develop electric vehicles, users want to refuel, the contradictory resolution is: you can refuel, but you must use electric power, so the incremental income will be born, its actual energy consumption is more than Fuili and insertion The car has a decrease.
In the consumer level, there are two demands. First, I don’t care if you have a policy, the car will open the oil fuel; the second is: I manage your car, you can go green. Ideal One on this basis also attaches a selling point: 6 SUVs suitable for multi-port homes. So, despite the ideal one in Beijing, I can’t go green, but with the selling point of the car itself, the ideal is also very fast to attack the city, ranked 9th in the new energy sales in the first-tier city, ranking 8th, all in the new first-tier city Exceeding the performance of the BMW new energy.
In summary, days, land, people and achievements have achieved ideals, but also achieved the entire increased range.
But Ideal One is never the end of the increase, and it will not be a general victory.
Third, the Retriever 2.0: Can you draw a blueprint? 
Take a look at the chart. On December 18, 2020, when you start, there are two versions of pure electric and extension, but from the site and online.According to the reaction, the obvious rate is more concerned.
There is a comparative figure of the # 增 程 两 #, the reading is very fast. From the seven parameters listed, the overall dominance of the 图 free, for example, using a 1.5T four-cylinder machine, 100 kilometers to accelerate 4.6s, and 20 intelligent auxiliary driving.
Of course, Ideal One also has advantages: the battery is 40.5kWh, better than the 33KWH of the 图 free, the pure battery life is longer.图 free only needs to add 92 gasoline and the cost is lower. 
The other two are different. Ideal One is a steady 6/7 “milk dad”, and the 图 free is a high-performance 5 “backbone driving”.
Any car is not perfect, nothing more than a function of function and design within a limited cost.
Between this level, it is seen that the difference between the product differences and the value of the company. For example, between battery capacity and engine displacement, you can’t ask both to be big, so how do you hit? 
The ideal one program is a small engine and a large battery, and the 图 free is selected for large engines and small batteries. On the surface, the ideal solution is more expensive, because the fuel consumption is lower, the pure electric work section is larger. But what is the actual situation? Let’s take an example.
When the user is low-temperature running high speed, the power demand rises sharply. If the battery losses, it can only rely on 1.2T to instance to instantly power generation. However, the maximum power of this three-cylinder machine is 96KW, and the peak power is only 62kW after the generator output, and the output power on the motor is only 56.5 kW. At this time, the battery does not participate in work, only converts thermal energy into electricity by this 1.2T three-cylinder machine, driving this 2.3-ton medium-scale SUV advancement.
The load is overloaded, which is not surprising that the entire power system is down.
Ideally customer service suggest that users are full of electricity and race, which makes the “no mileage anxiety” that I said, “oil can electricity” became an empty talk.
And the 1.5T four-cylinder rated power generation power of the 图 free is 60KW, the maximum power generation power is 80kW, and it is ideal one.1.2T The three-cylinder machine is 1/3, which ensures that the radio is not climbed when the special electricity is running.
This scene is not too much, but it is not a rare scene, and the choice of 图 is biased to safety.
In addition, the noise and NVH of the three-cylinder machine is also an unavoidable fact. Ideal One has made great efforts in this regard, the overall effect is also good, but because the foundation is weak, it will still be complained from time to time.
Opened Ideal App, search “Noise” will find many users who complain about the ideal one. For example: 哒 哒 哒 The engine noise is getting more and more obvious, noise and vibration and motorcycles are similar, noise is large enough …
It is difficult to believe this is a performance of 328,000 luxury SUV. 
The ideal extension is from the East Annective code to the engine, from Mitsubishi five years ago; at present, Dong’an dynamics belongs to Chang’an cars, but Changan himself does not use this three-cylinder machine, and It is the main blue whale engine. It is reported that ideal is the first customer of this engine.
Although Delphi, AVL two professional companies cooperate with adjusted, but the 1.2T three-cylinder machine is still a slot.
On acceleration and maximum speed, the 图 free is from 29%, 16 percentage. In fact, as a dad car, the ideal one’s performance is good enough, even for sudden performance it has broken through some limits.
“The acceleration of the vehicle is not just the motor power and torque size, it also takes the ability of the vehicle suspension, which is a system engineering. Once the balance is broken, there will be safety accidents.” “Well-known rights expert Wanchun Lei is evaluated like this.
Ideally recognized that Ideal One has a total of 97, and 10 of them have taken out the head of the lower arm ball in 11 months. .
This discharge probability is 10.3 percent, much higher than the LT; 3 percentage of the same level. The root cause is new materials and new designs. Although ideal is in questioningIdeal: The front suspended swing arm uses a steel-plastic mixed material (steel and PA6 + 50 percent fiber-composite composites), which can improve the dynamic performance of the vehicle while weighing.
“The top of Model X and Model S is also the same material.” Ideally.
However, industry insiders pointed out that this is not a matter. Because Tesla uses the composite material in the upper arm, and the ideal uses the anti-arm, the latter is significantly higher. In particular, Tesla is the front double arm, and the two fork arms can attract the lateral force received by the tire; but ideal one is the front McPherson structure, only the swing arm to undertake the lateral shear.
So, Tesla’s falling arm is still a traditional material, and there is no new composite material for Ideal One.
In addition to the media, there is also a design. Wanchun Lei pointed out: The horizontal angle of the front suspension direction and the lower control arm are as high as 22.5 degrees, and the ball pin is more than 58 degrees. The design of these two angles is much higher than the general vehicle. The former will produce a larger axial discharge force, and the latter can bear smaller, and there is design defects.
In fact, Li Xi also admitted in November 2020: Ideal One has a design defect.
According to the publicly exposed of social media, the next day after the announcement of the recall on November 6, Changsha had an ideal one hair axis event; January 2021, according to a group chat record An ideal one of a king surnamed owner has experienced a 40km / h rolling bar after the recall. These two events have not been given public description.
This shows that new materials plus new design, which is really easy to have new security risks.
As the new forces in the traditional forces, the 图 东 东 东 东 东 东 汽车 汽车 汽车 汽车 汽车 汽车 于 于 于 于 于 于 于 系统 系统 系统 系统 系统 系统 系统 系统It is reported that the 图 FREE has completed high temperature plateau testing, vehicle strengthening corrosion resistance testing and high-precipitation test, will also launch a series of tests such as NVH, dynamic durability, collision, and battery packs.
Industry insiders said: “图It is the first high-end brand in Dongfeng, with central enterprises fully endorsement, technology research and development, work materials, test standards, will definitely not fight horses. There is a red flag in front, it must have to do better. “
Because 图 free is delivered in the third quarter, the car gathers can’t assert it. However, at least in theoretically, there will be no gt; 10% degaussing rate, engine Hyperthermiasts such as the cabin. 
And, new brands, new products can also understand, but if communication is not in place.
On May 8, 2020, an ideal one was fired in the streets of Changsha. The ideal official statement was “smoke”. This kind of facts have fallen into the “Wonderful Pen Flowers”. This is also, many KOL An root source that is no longer trusted by the ideal communication.
Open an occasion, Li Xi has always appeared in the image of a life tutor, and the friend is also a guest.
For example, he learned Dongfeng’s 图 车 also released a new surrender SUV new car, publicly said: There is a new player to enter, absolutely a good thing. In private, we have been communicating long-term communication.
love true, moving But private?
a long picture of an ideal car, also quietly circulating: 
“图 free because of the double fork Arm, air springs, can only be used as two-row seat, and ideal one can do “three rooms and one hall”.图 FREE configuration is much, but it will pass the cost to the consumer. “
Xiaobian first saw the double-made arm as a weak point to attack. Now there are more than 200,000 high-end cars, in addition to the Han EV is not in front of the double arm, and as mentioned above , Because there is no double-fork arm, Ideal One is inherited when the lateral shear force is tolerated, and only the Swash arm of the McPherson structure is inherited, and the material and design problems are more likely to generate a “jet” risk. [ 123]
This kind of practice of attacking your own weaknesses is a big way.
Don’t mention, Li Xi has been in front of a user.Explosted three TMDs. You can say that it is true, but the true feelings should also be seen. These have constituted the special connotation of the ideal brand.
Shortly, a KOL was burst out: “Ideal One’s ONE is high, and the second-hand car market is difficult to ask”. It is a hammer that caused anger, attracting various trucks. In the actual situation, a 328,000 ideal one landed more than 330,000, and only 250,000 in the second-hand car market was opened for a week. The car business is still unwilling to accept. Finally, this biggest loser who is not spread is naturally ideal one.
The nature of the brand is believed that if it is difficult to believe that the brand will naturally have problems.
In January 2021, the ideal sales have a significant falling over the last month, and 5,379 results have fallen 12% from the previous month. Its ranking also fell from the second place to the third place, surpassing Xiaopeng. 
Car Junjun often said that the car is a marathon. Capsule can seek for a while, can we see.
Car gathers tone
2021 may be a new energy change. High-speed growth has come to the platform, and all manufacturers face the choice of crossroads:
If the hydrogen energy can be developed, Yasantong, which is “the first stock of hydrogen energy” is expected to lose 2000-30 million yuan in 2020. Dongfeng Auto said that there is no substantial progress in hydrogen fuel cooperation with Fuyang City and National Electric.
Development of electricity: It is a better life of the three yuan lithium battery, which has a safe hidden dangers, or the low cost is safer, and the lithium iron phosphate is the same. If the former LIN La, BYD is connected to the fire, how to ensure the safety of high energy densities? If it is the latter Lian Tesla, BYD is repeatedly complained, how to ensure the user experience? If you go, Guangzhou Automobile, SAIC’s 1000km big battery, how much water?
Development and mixing: Is the PHEV plugging or an EREV increase? If the former is the DHT of the Great Wall or the DM-I of BYD? If it is the latter, is the ideal one three-cylinder machine or a four-cylinder machine?
Ideally openI have opened up a new idea, and I live in the neglected market, but it is difficult to walk on this road.图 东 东 东 东 发 发 发 发 发 发 发 发 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝 蓝. 蓝 蓝. 蓝 蓝
2021, and row and cherish.