2020 new energy vehicles subsidy back slope, policymakers leveled off, vehicle pollution and recycling issues and China’s lithium battery industry development of the actual situation of mineral lithium, lithium material head players Tian Qi Li industry losses in 2019, 2.8 billion yuan, 30 billion yuan interest-bearing liabilities of top pressure, also appeared shares fell liquidity squeeze.
2020 Guangzhou Daily quoted the March 31 release of “Tian Qi Li industry losses exceed 2.8 billion yuan last year,” a text part: Tian Qi Li industry is still down! As of March 30, Tianqi Lithium Industries shares fell to 18.41 yuan, down over 9 percentage. And in September 2017, the stock Tian Qi Li industry had stood 61 yuan highs, now at the peak of the latest share price of less than three percent.
New Energy Intelligence Analysis trivial information network integrated multi-study analysis, the acquisition premium Chile SQM23.77 percentage of equity, in accordance with the valuation of $ 17.1 billion acquisition, the acquisition in accordance with the valuation premium of 7.42 times pb, while the lithium carbonate market in 2017 the highest price of about 160,000 yuan per ton, the current market price of lithium carbonate is less than 60,000 yuan per ton. Due to lower premiums due to impairment of investment assets, asset impairment 2.2 billion. The cost of premiums resulting from acquisitions as well as Australia and Chile corresponding to the relevant tax policies to increase corporate tax expense increased the cost burden on businesses.
As China’s leading enterprises in lithium raw materials, quality control of mineral resources is the world’s most important work, the acquisition of Australian Taliesin 51 percentage stake in the acquisition of Chile SQM23.77 percentage of equity, is based on long-term optimistic about the new energy vehicles in the global automotive field made the decisions taken.
2019, China’s new energy auto market is subject to the impact of China’s new energy vehicle subsidies, subsidies for new energy vehicles a significant retreat slope (up 75 percent) of China’s new energy vehicles for the first time negative growth rate of growth;
in 2020, the European new car market broke out energy, in January and February for two consecutive months the average growth rate of over 90% or more, the largest growth in some countries over 60 percentage, Europe has become a high-growth new energy vehicles a foregone conclusion;
affected by the new global crown epidemic, China, the United States starting two new energy vehicle market by short-term impact of the epidemic of production and sales setback, the European March new car sales stagnated energy. But the new crown epidemic shadowRing are short-term, long term, new energy vehicles, high growth is inevitable.
short-term problems of asset impairment, taxes, capital costs to remove, medium and long term acquisition of Taliesin and SQM for sustained and stable control core global lithium resources are valuable. Taliesin spodumene ore extraction of lithium from the full cost of less than 40,000 yuan per ton, SQM Lithium Salt Lake full costs only less than 30,000 yuan per ton, compared with some domestic enterprises (Jiangxi lepidolite costs about 60,000 yuan) cost advantage is extremely clear.
moment, Tian Qi Li industry suffered losses and debt crisis, it is necessary to overall judgments and China’s new energy industry development and subsidies:
The first is the reduction of new energy vehicles subsidies , the global battery in the efforts together with China Ningde era, LG chemical in South Korea, SK, SDI, Japan’s Panasonic and other battery leading enterprises, high-nickel-8 series (NCM811) as the main development, series 9 (9 : 0.5: 0.5) as the battery technology forward to explore the direction, in terms of energy density has made substantial progress.
2020, the time has Ningde NCM811 high nickel positive electrode material into mass production, the use of three yuan CTP system weight energy density battery module packaging technology will not break 200Wh / kg. Achieve maximum passenger NEDC condition Mileage than 800km, the average mileage of more than 600km level, and since further reducing the proportion of cobalt metal, battery cost will be reduced to 700 yuan / kwh less.
Note 1: equipped with technology index is relatively conservative era CTP three yuan Ningde battery system is the first model EU5 R550 series, the latest variant BEIJING brand.
2020, BYD held online conference in March, the launch of foreign real super lithium iron phosphate batteries + CTP without blade module packaging technology battery systems. BYD’s independent Buddha Di Branch is responsible for battery and new energy vehicle involved in the core technology research and development, production and foreign sales business. This means that the safety of the traction battery as a basis for the direction of the blade, the global scope of the major OEMs (BYD joint venture with Toyota won the first models will be applied blade battery system).
Note 2: Energy mountedDensity of 160Wh / kg blade system the first car battery, BYD launched in June “Chinese” vehicle group (including EV and DM).
New Energy Intelligence Analysis Network has reason to believe:
to 2021, the compact-class model costs the global new energy vehicle market will be substantially corresponds to the area of fuel cost models in late 2020 consistent, global new energy vehicles outbreak is coming. As of 2019, the global new energy automobile production and sales compared to the global automotive production and sales of less than 2 percentage.
With three yuan lithium battery costs further downwards, the electric vehicle mileage up to 800 kilometers above the maximum, in line with the latest Chinese GB 350 kilowatts fast-charging technology (car terminal) and gradually spread, and in 2020 China new energy vehicle charging infrastructure (charging pile tip) of the full support of new energy vehicles in the global market penetration will be greatly improved.
As the subsidy policy of weakening iron phosphate lithium battery back again, security is more superior “iron battery” shipments rebound, the cost advantage of inadequate performance projections, China and the global scope of the new energy vehicle development trends in a more rational and stable, with the car directly compete with the traditional fundamental.
in 2020 estimated global production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach the 3 million level, the growth rate of more than 50 percentage. 2021 annual growth will be further enhanced. China and the global scope of the new comprehensive alternative energy vehicles will be officially opened.
Thus, China and the global crisis into new energy industry is closely related to the development of healthy and full of Tian Qi Li industry suffered in 2019, do not read too much.
Text / New Energy Intelligence Analysis Network Song Nan