At the beginning of Year of the Rat, the sudden outbreak of a new crown pneumonia and hit everyone by surprise, businesses have suffered a huge impact, but already in the “winter” in the automotive industry, even worse, whether it is car prices , dealers or suppliers, are facing a historic challenge.
Today, outside of Hubei has 16 consecutive downward trend, I believe that the epidemic will soon be over. After the epidemic, to the automotive market like now? After the outbreak is a good time to buy a car yet? Today, Jiang brother to come chat with you.
1. The desire of consumers to buy cars or enhance
“SARS”
Reference 17 years ago, after that outbreak, many consumers understand the importance of private cars. Especially in the special period, bus traffic safety problems, outage, for family without a car, the trip becomes a very difficult thing. The independent airtight traveling environment for the family’s health, safety also some of the more secure, so after “SARS”, China’s auto market ushered significant growth.
This time the novel coronavirus, it is with more contagious and dangerous. Despite the current domestic car ownership is large, but according to the latest statistics, China thousands of car ownership is only 173, down conversion of about 2-3 households own a car, which means that more than half of Chinese families, there is no private cars.
so after the outbreak test car will those who are not home or car will greatly enhance the Xinjiang brother believes that the market should appear tidal wave not a small car. However, since the outbreak of the impact on the economy, consumers’ income also will be reduced, so the supply side (manufacturers, 4S shop) in response to the program after the plague, also affect the consumer’s purchase impulse.
2. Cheqi urgent resumption of production
as a top national industry, the automotive industry has always been the pursuit of large-scale, high-efficiency production industry, many automobile companies to produce a high tempo Claim. Once the shutdown, thenCar prices suffered losses will be very great, after all, factory rent, staff salaries, equipment maintenance, loan interest, etc., are not a small sum. Like Beijing Benz, has stated cut-off day will lose 400 million yuan, in order to reduce losses, it also sent a letter requesting the Tianjin Municipal Government, Pets vendor’s return to work.
as far away as Beijing, have been so much affected, living in Hubei manufacturers is not spared, such as Dongfeng Honda, Dongfeng Nissan Dongfeng Peugeot, Dongfeng Citroen, Dongfeng Renault and other brands, their vehicle factory return to work date is postponed several times (the latest is required later on the 20th). Epidemic belong majeure, Xinjiang brother think that since produced a huge loss, it is naturally find a way to “earn back”, “puerile quot; for automotive manufacturers only, from time to time is a” win-win “a good way. .
3 dealer inventory pressure is high
for dealers, may be more anxious than car prices, according to the latest issue of quot;. Chinese auto dealer inventory early warning indicators survey quot; display , January 2020 auto dealer inventories index was 62.7 percentage warning, the chain increased 6.3 percentage points, an increase of 6.5 percentage points, the stock index has hit a new high of nearly 11 months. bluntly, it is January 4S shop hoarding a lot of stock cars.
the longer inventory accumulation, the greater the losses, but affected by the outbreak, consumers are afraid to go out and purchase , so more frequent 4S shop opened zero turnover phenomenon can be expected car sales in February or the “frozen.”
and influenced by the traditional aspects of the concept car, etc., it introduced for major car brands The online exhibition hall, VR to look at cars, look at cars and even live online transactions, such as on-site test drive, the same misgivings. After all, unlike other FMCG, as consumer staples, consumer to buy a car is still relatively cautious. [ 123]
Thus, during the epidemic, 4S shop inventory will be difficult to solve half past, Although some car companies also take into account the burden on dealers, such as the Great Wall, specially introduced quot; three by three Fu quot; policy, in order to alleviate the financial burden of assessment and pressure. However, inventories remain high, the dealer is detrimental, so that Xinjiang brother, after the outbreak, dealers and car prices will certainly come up with some preferential policies, the promotion down inventory, after all, this is also capable of resume sales of the most effective and efficient way.
4. Policy needs help release
and remove the factory, 4S shop outside the action, local governments to ensure that the same car sales through the introduction of a number of favorable policies. Like Foshan, Guangdong, the first to launch a car allowance policy, as long as the purchase of vehicles to meet emissions standards, the government will provide subsidies for 2000-5000 dollars.
in Foshan Once you have this model, local governments might also follow subsidies, or to further relax the car purchase to promote automobile consumption to ensure the smooth development of the automobile market. .
5 Summary:
In general, after the epidemic, I believe we are strong consumer demand, and in order to quickly restore cash flow businesses, Xinjiang brother felt the automotive market markdowns should be a high probability event. Moreover, the future of some local governments may also have certain incentives to promote the release of the demand for cars. It would appear that in 2020 “buy the dips” opportunity to buy a car may really want to come, if after the outbreak ushered market price, would you consider buying a car?